Crisis, what crisis?

 

Football is apparently in crisis.  Blowouts are killing the game.  Through 21 rounds ten games have been decided by 100 or more points.  Crowd numbers suggest fans are staying away from the games or changing the channel.  Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse has expressed his view many times, using a mix of sympathy and dire warnings.

 

After defeating North Melbourne by 117 points in round 16, Malthouse was thrilled with the win but offered comfort to North’s coach Brad Scott.

‘It’s great for the supporters and good for the playing group,’ Malthouse said of the victory.  ‘But you feel desperately, I do, for Brad Scott.’

The words carried intent, but it seemed Malthouse was hoping to deflect praise from Collingwood’s performance.  Though the four quarter effort had been good, Malthouse mentioned North’s inaccurate start that might’ve changed things.  It sounded hollow.

‘As a coach, sometimes these things happen,’ Malthouse said.  ‘I’ve been on the receiving end of these through my career and there’s not a lot you can do.’

It was the fifth time for the season a club had lost by more than 100 points and Malthouse wasn’t impressed.  ‘The result, I’m not 100 percent sure they’re the things that I really enjoy.’ 

In the past five rounds, there has been another five defeats by more than 100 points, bringing the total for the season to ten.  There’s every possibility Port Adelaide and the Gold Coast will suffer more massive defeats.

At the weekend Malthouse called for changes to the fixture, making the top teams play each other twice and the bottom teams once, while the bottom teams play each other twice and the top teams once.  Malthouse argued an inverse fixture would decrease the blowouts, create more competitive games and ensure clubs win more.  Expansion clubs, he wrote, needed extra protection.

The theory is sound, but it doesn’t take into account natural attrition.  Under Malthouse’s system, the Western Bulldogs, preliminary finalists last year, would’ve had a tough draw.  Given the Bulldogs regression, they might’ve slipped further this season under Malthouse’s system.  Similarly, West Coast, during their resurgence, might’ve won more games against weaker opposition.

AFL boss Andrew Demetriou has been forced to defend the draw against accusations of commercial bias, using the Magpies as an example, every club wants to play Collingwood, and suggesting Malthouse should talk to his president about relinquishing the Anzac Day game. 

Demetriou said the current propensity for blowouts was of no concern.  Clubs needed to lose to learn how to win.

No club wants to lose by 100 or more points.  This season, two blowouts have cost Adelaide’s Neil Craig and Melbourne’s Dean Bailey their jobs.  Blowouts are humiliating, the ramifications tough but the game has endured them through 114 seasons.

Since 1970, 183 games have been decided by 100 or more points.  Examining each decade provides proof the game is not in crisis and the draw, while imperfect, will never be any different.

The table below shows the decade and the number of blowouts.

 

In the seventies, when six games were played on Saturday under the same conditions, the number of blowouts was low, just 23 for the decade.  Players, back then, were certainly less skilful or fitter and the game was dominated by long kicks to packs.  Handball would become institutionalised during the decade, but part time footballers and two training sessions a week ensured games were closer.

The table below shows the year and clubs who lost by 100 or more points.

Year	Clubs and margin
1970	Fitzroy (110)
1971	South (105), Essendon (147), Footscray (115)
1972	North (108)
1974	South (106), Fitzroy (129)
1975	South (107), Geelong (118)
1976	South (104)
1977	St Kilda (107), Carlton (102), Essendon (100), Essendon (106), Geelong (107)
1978	St Kilda (100), Melbourne (113)
1979	St Kilda (178), Hawthorn (105), Footscray (122), Melbourne (190), St Kilda (104)
	Hawthorn (105)

 

In the seventies, only Richmond and Collingwood were spared the humiliation of a massive blowout.  Given the vagaries of form, injury and depth of lists, it’s a remarkable statistic.

South Melbourne and St Kilda endured horror runs, suffering blowouts across three consecutive seasons.  1973 is the only season in the past 31 years that didn’t feature a loss by 100 or more points.

By the eighties, footballers fronted for three and four training sessions.  Money dominated the decade, richer clubs like Carlton, Hawthorn and Essendon bought the best players, while clubs like Fitzroy, Footscray and St Kilda got the discards.  The advent of attacking football on smaller suburban grounds and fitter, better skilled players led to 56 blowouts.

Clubs routinely won by kicking 25 goals while the opposition scored 15 or more.  The eighties was a decade of exciting, attacking football, free from limitations of restrictive football, the flood, the press and the zone.  It was also free, until 1987, of the draft and salary cap.

Year	Clubs and margin
1980	Fitzroy (118), Footscray (122), Footscray (110), St Kilda (152)
	St Kilda (104), Footscray (115)
1981	St Kilda (104), Melbourne (129), St Kilda (100), North (114), South (111)
1982	Footscray (109), Footscray (143), St Kilda (104), Sydney (102)
	Footscray (129), Footscray (146)
1983	St Kilda (129), Sydney (140), Footscray (132), Footscray (115), Carlton (111)
	North (150), St Kilda (107), Melbourne (115)
1984	North (137), Richmond (115), St Kilda (104), Collingwood (133)
1985	St Kilda (110), St Kilda (140), Fitzroy (103), St Kilda (113), Carlton (109)
	St Kilda (126),Melbourne (120), North (104)
1986	Melbourne (116), Richmond (101), Melbourne (122), Melbourne (124)
	Richmond (101), Geelong (135)
1987	Footscray (108), Essendon (114), Brisbane (103), Collingwood (125)
	West Coast (130), Essendon (163), North (118)
1988	Brisbane (118), Brisbane (140, Fitzroy (103)
1989	St Kilda (119), Brisbane (129), Richmond (134), West Coast (142)

 

The weaker clubs make up the majority of the losses listed above.  Footscray lost ten games by 100 or more points while St Kilda lost 13.  Brisbane lost four in their first three seasons.  Only Collingwood in 1984 and North in 1987 lost finals by 100 or more points.

North Melbourne, in 1983, became the only club since 1970 to finish on top while losing a game by 100 or more points.

The nineties retained the focus on attacking football despite the conspiracies of Mick Malthouse and Rodney Eade.  As coach of West Coast, Malthouse developed a physical brand of accountable football, constricting games by keeping the ball in possession and inching forward.  Under Malthouse, the Eagles would kick ten goals and win, while restricting the opposition to six goals.

It was intense, often boring but the Eagles won two premierships through strangulation. 

Eade was different.  With Tony Lockett in the goal square, he developed the flood, keeping players behind the ball and giving Lockett space.  Clubs that kicked long against Sydney kicked to congestion.  When they tried to go short there was no space.  Within a season every club was flooding, but the blowouts continued.

Attack, it seemed, was the best form of defence against a flood.  In the nineties, despite ground rationalisation, the draft and salary cap and tactical visionaries, 53 games were decided by 100 or more points.

Year	Clubs and margin
1990	Geelong (115), Richmond (141), Melbourne (121)
1991	Fitzroy (131), Brisbane (102), Fitzroy (157), Adelaide (131), Footscray (118)
	Adelaide (123), Brisbane (101), Brisbane (101), Fitzroy (126), Brisbane (120)
1992	Richmond (126), Brisbane (164), Adelaide (123), Brisbane (108)
	Melbourne (107), Brisbane (131), Essendon (160), Richmond (110)
1993	Sydney (124), Sydney (102), Brisbane (116), Richmond (139)
	Brisbane (104), Richmond (121)
1994	Hawthorn (127), Fitzroy (104), Richmond (113)
1995	St Kilda (116), Hawthorn (102), Adelaide (122), Fitzroy (126), Adelaide (135)
1996	Melbourne (121), Footscray (131), Fitzroy (109), Melbourne (106)
	Fitzroy (105), Fitzroy (127), Melbourne (113), Fitzroy (151)
1997	Melbourne (107), Fremantle (100), Richmond (137), Melbourne (116)
1998	Geelong (103), Sydney (101), Fremantle (104)
1999	West Coast (100), Adelaide (118), Fremantle (114)

 

Brisbane and Fitzroy struggled, losing nine blowouts each.  Richmond and Melbourne, with seven huge losses, were almost as bad.  Those clubs lost big across a few seasons, the blowouts weren’t aberrations.  Some clubs took time to master the draft or were perpetuating a culture of failure. 

By 2000, clubs were focusing more on defence to win, developing game plans to retained possession with short kicks to free players.  AFL became soccer with hands.  Players routinely gave ground, kicking backwards and sideways, switching the play without pressure as the crowd booed.

The decade, though, produced lower scores and closer games.  With 37 matches decided by 100 or more points, the equalisation policies, the draft and salary cap, were obviously working. 

Sydney won the 2005 premiership by kicking eight goals on a perfect day.  The game was enthralling because of the four point margin and a mark seconds before the siren.  If it wasn’t a grand final, no one would remember it.  Defensive football might win premierships, but it’s effectively boring and unimaginative.  The following year, West Coast reversed the result and won the grand final by a point, kicking 12 goals in a much better game.

Year	Clubs and margin
2000	Adelaide (114), Fremantle (117), Richmond (101), Collingwood (111)
	Fremantle (107), North (125)
2001	West Coast (119), North (107), West Coast (112)
2002	Hawthorn (102), St Kilda (122), Carlton (108)
2003	Carlton (116)
2004	Carlton (105), West Coast (101), Carlton (108), Adelaide (141), North (113)
2005	Port (117), Hawthorn (117), Collingwood (110), Brisbane (139)
2006	Richmond (115), Richmond (118), Geelong (102), Essendon (138)
	Richmond (103)
2007	Richmond (157), Carlton (100), Carlton (117), North (106), Port (119)
2008	Melbourne (104), West Coast (100), West Coast (135), Melbourne (116)
2009	Fremantle (117)

 

Compared to the eighties and nineties, the 2000s were frugal.  For the first time since 1976 only one club, Carlton in 2003 and Fremantle in 2009 lost by 100 or more points.  North Melbourne, in 2000 and 2007 lost finals in blowouts, as did Port Adelaide in the 2007 grand final.

In 2007, former Geelong coach Mark Thompson beat the flood and the possession game by preaching handball and play through the corridor, the shortest route home.  For the next three seasons, Geelong consistently set records for the number of possessions, more handpasses than kicks, and high scores became a feature.

Thompson’s brand of football produced two premierships, but after three seasons it was obsolete against the press, a game plan Mick Malthouse developed, loosely based on St Kilda’s defensive zones and the art of war.

Collingwood went wide, boundary line wide and shunned the corridor.  It caught clubs unaware and it worked.  With three kicks from defence, the Magpies created shots on goal.  Teams that tried rebounding through the middle or by use of handball were met with a wall of strategically placed footballers intent on keeping the ball in attack.

The Magpies won last year’s premiership at the second attempt and are short favourites to win another.  Malthouse, by virtue of success, shouldn’t be concerned by the state of play or the number of blowouts his club wins.  The burden of expansion and the draw aren’t his to carry, but his suggestions are uttered as a statesman of the game, and though his worry has merit, it is historically misplaced.   

In 2011, ten games have been decided by 100 or more points, a feat that hasn’t occurred since 1991.  Since 1970, various seasons have produced six or eight blowouts.  They will happen, on any given day.

In the past two seasons 14 games have been decided by 100 or more points.  Significantly, there have been five in the past five rounds of football.  The blowouts might get worse next year, given the introduction of Greater Western Sydney.  History shows, however, that expansion clubs are going to take regular beatings, and there’s always clubs who falter.

It is natural attrition, enhanced, obviously, by the expansion clubs.

Year	Clubs and margin
2010	North (104), Richmond (108), Western Bulldogs (101), Fremantle (116)
2011	Gold Coast (119), Gold Coast (139), Bulldogs (123), Richmond (103), North (117)
	Adelaide (103), Melbourne (186), Gold Coast (150), Port (138), Port (165)

 

Some fans love blowouts, others don’t.  Malthouse and the media can offer solutions, call for shorter games, a shorter season and inverse fixtures, but nothing will prevent blowouts.  The meek will always be percentage for the best. 

For all the speculation about the draw, the state of the game and concerns for sponsors and fans, the pundits need to project themselves forward three or four years, when the expansion clubs have matured.  The number of blowouts in the next few seasons might be high, but they’ve been high before and the game still prospers.

Clubs will rise and fall.  Inconsistency will be a feature, as it always has been.  There will be blowouts, and they’re nothing to worry about.  There have been more than 5000 games of football played since 1970, with just 183 decided by 100 or more points.

Crisis, there’s no crisis.

The table below shows the number of times clubs have lost by 100 or more points since 1970.

18	Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Melbourne
17	St Kilda
14	Fitzroy, Brisbane
12	North Melbourne
11	Sydney
9	Adelaide, Carlton
8	West Coast
7	Essendon, Fremantle
6	Geelong, Hawthorn
4	Collingwood, Port Adelaide
3	Gold Coast

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