No one would have believed as last summer slipped into autumn that Hawthorn was watching the machinations at Collingwood and Geelong and plotting a game plan to defeat the press. No one foresaw form that sees them third with two rounds to go.
No one could’ve dreamed the scrutiny Alistair Clarkson applied to the competition would ensure his club played their nemesis, Geelong, in the first week of the finals. The game will generate hype to rival the 2008 grand final. When it is over, one club’s premiership aspiration will be ruined.
Before the season started, no one predicted Hawthorn would win the premiership. Injury continued to hurt and Clarkson’s zone creation, successful for one season, was beaten by the press. The Hawks, in 2009, became the first club since Adelaide a decade earlier to miss the finals the year following a premiership.
Form in 2010 was just as bad. After round seven the Hawks were fourteenth with one win and six losses. Following seven consecutive wins, Hawthorn had risen to seventh, where they’d finish at season’s end. In the elimination final, they lost to Fremantle by five goals.
Before the season their credentials were questioned, yet they’ll finish third, most likely with eighteen wins and four defeats. If they do that, Hawthorn will become the first club in the history of the game to finish third with eighteen wins. In most seasons, eighteen wins is enough to claim top spot.
Simply, they’ve had a great season, but despite form and experience, the Hawks are at generous odds, paying $6.50 to win the grand final. It’s a tempting bet, given Collingwood is paying $1.80 and Geelong $3.75.
Temptation, though, is tempered by absences. Ben Stratton and Stephen Gilham needed knee reconstructions while Jarryd Roughead tore his achillies. Ruckman Max Bailey is on the comeback from three knee reconstructions. At various stages of the season, Cyril Rioli, Xavier Ellis, David Hale and Luke Hodge have missed games. Hawthorn has overcome three major injuries and associated damage without complaint, and they keep winning.
Tellingly, they haven’t beaten Collingwood or Geelong this season, clubs they will have to play in the finals. Long range form against Geelong is poor, while it is patchy against the Magpies.
Since winning the 2008 grand final, Hawthorn has lost six consecutive games to the Cats across three seasons by an average of seven points. The games have been close, with five decided by nine or less points, and three decided by less than a goal. The biggest margin was 19 points earlier this year in round five. Simply, a few more goals and the Hawks wouldn’t currently be owned by Geelong.
Since 2008, Hawthorn’s form against Collingwood has been even, two wins and two losses, including a three point win in round 21 last year. The Hawks know they can beat Collingwood, and despite a 41 point loss in round 15, Hawthorn seems ready to hit the finals with momentum, with six consecutive wins.
They play the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast in the final two rounds, games they’ll win comfortably. The easy run into September might allow Clarkson to push his players at training to rebuild fitness, ensuring they’re peaking at the right time while Collingwood and Geelong belt hell of each other in the final round.
The final against Geelong will be an interesting match. Hawthorn doesn’t lose too many finals, not with the air of supremacy they’ve carried into September for the past three decades. Since losing the 1987 grand final, the Hawks have won four without another loss. With history as a guide, when Hawthorn plays a grand final it matters not the era but the jumper.
Come the finals, Hawthorn will have as many as 12 premiership players in their side, which will be crucial against Geelong and Collingwood.
The competition is in an era where form has longevity for the richer clubs. Spending more money on football departments helps build lists of quality players more quickly than poorer clubs, and those lists are maintained with exact science. This year’s top three, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn, share the last four premierships.
Last week the Hawthorn football club celebrated the launch of a book, The Golden Years, stories from Hawthorn’s greatest era. At the event, club legends talked up the old days, lauding Hawthorn’s spirit and determination, traits that set them apart from the rest.
That raw emotion might be enough to inspire Clarkson’s men for the finals. While they’re not as skilled or potent as Geelong and Collingwood, they won’t need a huge change of fortune to win a premiership.
Hawthorn is the most successful AFL club across the last five decades. It’s no fluke they know how to play finals.
| 131 | Anne (7), Dave (7) |
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| 127 | Matt (7) |
| 126 | Stevo (7), Sandra (7) |
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