West Coast is the loser from the first week of the finals. Carlton is the winner. Their semi final will be played in Perth at Subiaco, giving the Eagles the natural advantage playing at home deserves. Carlton, it seems, is in for a long, tough night.
The Eagles, though, have three wins and two losses from their last five finals played at Subiaco. It isn’t the fortress people may believe. In 2005, the Eagles defeated Sydney by four points in the qualifying final. Two weeks later they accounted for Adelaide by 16-points in the preliminary final.
In the 2006 qualifying final they lost to the Swans by a point. The next week in the semi final, the Eagles thrashed the Western Bulldogs by 74-points.
They last played a home final in 2007, a semi final against Collingwood. Scores were level at the end of the fourth quarter, 10:12 apiece, and the match went into extra time. The Magpies won by 19-points.
Given the quirks of the draw, the Blues played the Eagles once this season, in round 14 at Docklands. West Coast led at each change, winning by 36-points. Josh Kennedy was dangerous for the Eagles, two goals from five shots while Mark LeCras kicked three.
For the Blues, their small forwards did well, Eddie Betts two goals and Jeff Garlett kicked three. Significantly, all of Carlton’s goals came from midfielders or small forwards, while West Coast’s talls contributed six goals, which turned out to be the difference. The Eagles found tall targets in attack, the Blues couldn’t.
Blues coach Brett Ratten said the Carlton team from round 14 was a little short in defence. Michael Jamison injured his knee during the game and went to the forward line before being subbed off. Jeremy Laidler, Nick Duigan and Mitch Robinson didn’t play.
‘So there’s a fair difference to the team,’ Ratten said.
Still, it’ll be a tough job for that quartet, on the wide expanse of Subiaco to restrict Quentin Lynch, Nick Naitanui, Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling to four goals or less.
To win at Subiaco, Carlton will need a key forward to kick three or four goals. Setanta OhAilpin and Brett Thornton will have to present, force a contest and hope Betts, Andrew Walker and Garlett kick goals.
Ratten might bring ruckman Shaun Hampson into the side to help Robbie Warnock take on Dean Cox and Nick Naitanui.
‘Do we play Thornton, Hampson and Setanta forward, which would be a different mix. That’s maybe something we can do to combat the Naitanui-Cox combination,’ he said.
West Coast will win by five goals. Potency in attack will prove the difference. Bryce Gibbs will miss with a shoulder injury and Matthew Kruezer still has a sleeping foot no one can work out. Carlton will be undermanned, undersized and outgunned.
On Friday night, Hawthorn plays Sydney in the other semi final at the MCG. Hawthorn are natural favourites, given the Swans have won once in their past 13 games at the MCG. Five weeks ago, they were appalling against Richmond, humiliated by 43 points. The Swans can’t win at the home of football.
It was that loss, though, that swung their season around with crucial victories over Geelong and St Kilda.
To further highlight anomalies of the AFL’s draw, Sydney and Hawthorn clashed once during the season, in round nine at the SCG. Hawthorn led Sydney by four points at half time and whacked them in the second half, winning by 46-points. Buddy Franklin kicked six goals and six behinds from 28 possessions. He’ll be a significant absence for the Hawks this weekend at the MCG. Ignore speculation that Franklin will play. Bone bruising causes pain. Franklin won’t be able to canter.
Hawthorn has coped well with injury through the season, but losing Franklin is the loss no club can cover. The rhetoric from the Hawks and bandied about in the media is the injury will make Hawthorn less predictable, forcing them to look for other options. David Hale has been mentioned as a possible target. He’s also a possibility to go goalless.
Against Geelong, Hale took a chest mark 35 metres out with barely an angle. At a crucial stage of the match his kick careered into the post. It wasn’t good enough.
Theoretically, the pundits are right about predictability, but Hawthorn is so predictable because Franklin is so damn good, kicking 76 goals for the year and winning the Coleman medal. No one ignores a target like Franklin. It wouldn’t make sense not to kick the ball to him.
Swans coach John Longmire said Hawthorn would still remain dangerous, despite Franklin’s absence.
‘Obviously he’s been a big part of their forward set-up for the entire year,’ Longmire said. ‘But even when he’s been out of the team, they’ve been averaging over 18 goals a game.’
In the qualifying final, Geelong had 76 long kicks, many deep inside 50 to a contest, either one on one or a pack situation. It was exciting, direct football and put the Hawks under pressure, a tactic that got the Cats back into the match in the second term and helped them pull away in the third.
Sydney would do well to copy the Cats by stacking their forward line with tall targets and bombing the ball long. There is absolutely no reason why that tactic will not work two weeks in a row. It might force the Hawks to play Luke Hodge in defence, which will further rob the forward line.
Despite being favourites, Hawthorn is no certainty to defeat Sydney. If the Swans can move the ball swiftly forward of centre and isolate Josh Gibson and Ryan Shoenmakers, Jesse Smith and Sam Reid and Matt Spangher might kick enough goals to keep the score board under pressure.
Hawks coach Alistair Clarkson understands there is a lack of bulk in the backline.
‘We’ve gone in with an undersized back six for the whole year because we’ve been forced to do that,’ he said. ‘We’ve got no other option. We’ve got no tall guys who are six foot four, six foot five in stature who can play consistently well in that area of the ground.’
The only problem Sydney has with bombing the ball long is their game plan, which doesn’t allow rapid ball movement or long kicks to a contest. The Swans prefer to crowd the football, force a stoppage, shifting the footy forward in inches, phone booth football. It’s noisy and expensive and no one gets to move anywhere.
It would take a fundamental shift in attitude to adopt an attacking game plan, but now is the best time. Sydney has kicked 100 points or more just six times for the season, whereas Hawthorn scored 100 points or more 12 times. Sydney must test Hawthorn’s defence.
‘We haven’t got a hell of a lot of flexibility back there,’ Clarkson said. ‘Gibbo’s done marvellously well throughout the course of the year, but he’s undersized and at different stages competes well outside his weight division.’
This is a match they can lose and probably should, but the Hawks will win by three goals. Sydney won’t be able to take advantage of Hawthorn’s lack of class, and they can’t win at the MCG.
