Craps

In the game of craps, players roll two die against a board and bet on the outcome.  It’s a chancy game.  Punters win and lose on the roll of a dice.  One number in craps stands out because of its duplicitous nature. 

 

Rolling a seven is described differently depending on the state of the game.  To roll a seven is known as a six ace or up pops the devil.  It’s also known as front line winner.  When a player rolls seven, the dealer is likely to pay the line or take the don’ts.

 

Seven is the line number.  Punters can bet on the player throwing numbers higher or lower than seven.  Half the time it’s a fool bet…

 

Rolling a seven, in the game of craps, is both ally and enemy.  With two die, six different combinations produce seven, making it the most common number thrown.

 

Round seven, in the AFL, provides a tangent to the game of craps.  If craps jargon was used to describe the AFL’s ladder after round seven, it’d look like this:

 

 

	Wins	Losses	%	Craps
West Coast	6	1	138.41	Six ace
Essendon	6	1	136.61	Six ace
Adelaide	6	1	126.08	Six ace
Carlton	5	2	140.22	Front line winner
Sydney	5	2	125.51	Front line winner
Fremantle	5	2	114.17	Front line winner
Collingwood	5	2	107.05	Front line winner
St Kilda	4	3	126.13	Pay the line
Hawthorn	4	3	123.08	Pay the line
Geelong	4	3	103.49	Pay the line
North Melbourne	3	4	114.16	Take the don’ts
Richmond	3	4	106.87	Take the don’ts
Western Bulldogs	3	4	88.91	Take the don’ts
Brisbane	2	5	73.42	Up pops the devil
Port Adelaide	1	6	76.24	Up pops the devil
GWS	1	6	50.49	Up pops the devil
Gold Coast	0	7	61.46	Up pops the devil
Melbourne	0	7	56.8	Up pops the devil

 

 

Recent research by various journalists suggests clubs that aren’t inside the eight after round seven won’t play finals.  The research is sound.  Since 1999 there have been few changes to the eight after round seven.  The order might change, but the clubs don’t.

 

Round seven has become the AFL’s season defining round. 

 

Using craps vernacular to highlight the plight of the clubs provides an interesting guide:

 

Six ace:

 

 

These clubs are hot.  West Coast, Essendon and Adelaide have won six wins, a huge advantage.  To make the finals they need to win six or seven more from thirteen rounds.  That’s achievable, when they’re rolling like this.

 

Injury has hurt West Coast.  They keep losing players, key forwards mainly.  Last weekend they were humiliated by the Bombers, an indication their depth is lacking. 

 

West Coast’s injury crisis isn’t as bad as it could be.  It’s better to be injured in the first seven rounds than the last seven rounds. 

 

Essendon is injured plenty, mainly soft tissue injuries, but they keep replacing the reinforcements.  They mightn’t have had their best side on the field all year, but six times they’ve been the best team on the ground. 

 

Beware the folly of youth.  The season is long.  Essendon don’t have as many seasoned players as the bona fide clubs.  It may take another year before they fully emerge.

 

Adelaide has performed beyond public expectation.  They’ve had a soft draw, games against Gold Coast, GWS and Port, but they’ve also defeated Sydney and Geelong.  After years of mediocrity they’re on the move. 

 

Current form is too good to predict a rapid fall.  They should play finals, but they’re vulnerable in terms of a top four spot. 

 

 

Front line winners

 

 

The front line winners are almost assured of playing finals football.  Collingwood, Carlton, Fremantle and Sydney need to win seven, maybe eight games to qualify.  Of the four, Collingwood and Carlton should finish higher.

 

These clubs can appear vulnerable.  They’ve all suffered bad defeats, but they’ll win more than they lose.  Collingwood lost to Hawthorn and Carlton but recent form has been better.  They’re staying in touch without doing anything memorable.  Despite their scant depth, they should push for the top four.

 

Carlton has also lost big, to Essendon and St Kilda, and they’re no longer premiership favourites.  They will finish high, though, perhaps in the top four.  The Blues are skilful but slow, class without grunt.  They need to be tougher if they’re to play in a grand final.

 

Sydney can’t win at the MCG.  It doesn’t help that they barely play there.  The game against Richmond is their only MCG engagement for the year, unless they play finals.

 

They’ve lost 13 of their last 15 games at the home of football.  No wonder they lost the 2006 grand final.  Their win in 2005 must’ve been a massive fluke.

 

Two weeks ago the Ramble was effusive about Sydney.  Now they’re likely to make the finals again, perhaps win one and go no further.

 

 

Pay the line

 

 

These clubs are a safe bet to finish above or below the line.  It depends on where your money lies.  Currently Hawthorn and Geelong are performing below the line. 

 

Despite being ninth, Hawthorn remains favourite to win the flag.  That favouritism is based on money wagered before the season, not on current form.  Three times they’ve been tested this year, against Sydney, West Coast and Geelong, and three times they lost. 

 

Hawthorn doesn’t seem to be out of form, but they’re hardly in form.  If the trend continues, they may finish as low as sixth or seventh.  A bet on the Hawks will pay off, but the dividend won’t be great.

 

St Kilda is below the line and they might stay there.  Against Carlton, the Saints shut down the space, but it’s a small ground at Docklands.  St Kilda could win twelve or thirteen games, but they’re long odds for a top four spot. 

 

Bigger grounds might test them out. 

 

At Kardinia Park, Brad Scott issued a warning not to write off Geelong as a premiership threat.  Scott may’ve been a little generous given the 50-point belting Adelaide gave them.  Come September, Scott said, the Cats would be competitive no matter where they finished in the eight.

 

Conceding, perhaps, a top four position???

 

Since 2007 Geelong has played in four grand finals and won three premierships.  They had to get old eventually.  Experience is invaluable in September, age isn’t.

 

The last five years, Geelong’s senior players have been carrying the rookies. Seven rounds into the season, the balance has shifted.  Senior players are gone, depth is reduced and the rookies need to carry more of the burden.

 

Geelong should make the finals, but they might do it with thirteen or fourteen wins.

 

 

Take the don’ts

 

 

Take the don’ts nowhere.  North Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and Richmond won’t play in September.  In round seven, North signalled their intentions with a limp effort against the Western Bulldogs.

 

Clubs that want to finish ninth should beat the Bulldogs.  Clubs wanting to play finals must beat the Bulldogs.

 

It was an aggravating performance made worse by the timing of the club’s annual fundraiser.  Last week, North members across the country received ten raffle tickets in the mail.  The clubs wants members to sell tickets to friends and family.

 

It’d be a tough sell, when North can’t beat the Bulldogs.  Most members don’t bother friends and family and buy the tickets themselves.  It’s just another $50 donation to a club that can’t beat the Bulldogs.

 

At Punt Road, Richmond is deftly gaining touch.  The past month has been good, and a little hope has agitated the members.  It might switch to aggravation.  The next month will be tough, games against Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda and Fremantle.  Richmond’s 3-4 win-loss ration could become 3-8.

 

Richmond, believe it or not, will miss the finals again.

 

 

Up pops the devil

 

 

These clubs are possessed and need to be destroyed.  Unfortunately they are, round by torturous round. Brisbane, Port, GWS, Gold Coast and Melbourne started the season with hope and up pops the devil, to render desire and importance asunder.

 

For vastly different reasons, these clubs are calamity.  They might win 20 games between them.  If the devil could only see the beast he made of these clubs, there’d be a lot more thunder and lightning over clubs like Carlton and Collingwood. 

 

Like some child possessed, the devil is howling for football blood.  He’ll get it in disappointment.

 

 

Crapping out

 

 

According to myth, seven is a lucky number.  Like all myths, they’re prone to interpretation.  Seven can be a ruinous number.

 

Seven rounds into the season, some clubs have already crapped out…

 

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