Change is certain

Take a close look at the teams that lined up in round twelve.  Pay particular attention to clubs expected to finish in the top four.  Note the line ups of each club. 

 

History shows there is no such thing as a settled line up.  The side that wins this year’s premiership will make as many as four or five changes to the team that went around in round nine.

 

There are too many intangibles, form, injury and suspension, for the side to stay the same. 

 

Change doesn’t come as a surprise.  It’s a fundamental of football.  Often it is heartbreaking. Every premiership club must make changes to the line up throughout the year and during the finals.  Players might be good enough to represent their club during the season, but finals are different.  Form cancels experience or youth.

 

In 1993, former Essendon utility Derek Kickett played every game of the season, including two finals, and was dropped by Kevin Sheedy from the grand final side.  Kickett had  endured a poor run of form, but his axing seemed harsh.

 

Tim Watson was also out of form, but Sheedy retained him in the line up.  Watson is credited with one handball for the grand final.

 

Kickett was enraged.  He quit Essendon and told the media he hated Sheedy.

 

Back in 1990, Collingwood’s Ron McKeown was kitted out to play when he was dropped from the grand final team.

 

McKeown was doing the warm when Leigh Matthews pulled him aside and said he was out.  Essendon had gone in short, and Matthews couldn’t find an opponent for McKeown.

 

A limited, overweight, tall defender capable of the mercurial, McKeown had played 20 games for the season. 

 

In 1977, North Melbourne had some depth.  Their line up for round nine contained six players who wouldn’t be selected for the grand final side. 

 

The six men who missed out – John Frazer, Mark Dawson, Graeme Melrose, Terry Moore, John Moylan and Glen Scanlon never played in a premiership.

 

Through form, injury or experience they were replaced by Phil Baker, Bill Nettlefold, Steve McCann, Stan Alves, Ken Montgomery, Gary Cowton and Xavier Tanner.

 

The replacements were all good footballers.  They’re all premiership players.

 

Since 2000, 44 footballers have played for the premiership club in round nine and missed out on the grand final.  On average, four footballers who played in round nine will miss out on the premiership. 

 

That’s a 22.5 percent change in personnel in 17 weeks.

 

The lists below show footballers who played for their clubs in round nine and missed out on the premiership.  The lists also show the players who were replaced them.

 

 

2000			2001
Essendon	Replaced by		Brisbane	Replaced by
Danny Jacobs*	Dustin Fletcher		Des Headland	Justin Leppitch
Michael Prior*	Justin Blumfield		Marcus Picken*	Shaun Hart
			Aaron Shattock	Craig McRea
2002			2003
Brisbane			Brisbane
Jamie Charman	Chris Johnson		Beau McDonald	Richard Hadley
Robbie Copeland	Justin Leppitch		Brad Scott	Darryl White
Shane Morrison*	Chris Scott		Chris Scott	Ash McGrath
Daniel Bradshaw	Beau McDonald		Aaron Shattock	Clark Keating
2004			2005
Port Adelaide			Sydney
Stuart Cochrane*	Brent Montgomery		Jarrad McVeigh*	Paul Williams
Brett Ebert*	Josh Carr		Jarrad Moore*	Nick Davis
Jarad Poulton*	Byron Pickett		Matthew Nicks*	Jason Ball
Steven Salopek*	Gavin Wanganeen		Jason Saddington*	Nick Foskike
Damon White*	Kent Kingsley		Luke Vogels*	Adam Schneider
2006			2007
West Coast			Geelong
Jaymie Graham*	Brett Jones		Mark Blake	Tom Harley
Mark Nickoski*	Rowan Jones		Matthew Egan*	Mark Chapman
Matt Rosa*	Steven Armstrong		Kane Tenace*	Steven King
Brent Staker*	Sam Butler		Travis Varcoe	Shannon Byrnes
2008			2009
Hawthorn			Geelong
Tim Clarke*	Brent Guerra		Ryan Gamble*	Cameron Mooney
Josh Kennedy*	Luke Hodge		David Johnson*	Brad Ottens
Mitch Morton*	Jordan Lewis		Shane Mumford*	Shannon Byrnes
Tom Murphy*	Shane Crawford		Matthew Stokes	Darren Milburn
Simon Taylor*	Brent Renouf
2010			2011
Collingwood			Geelong
Shane O’Bree*	Jarrad Blair		Darren Millburn	Tom Lonergan
Cameron Wood*	Leigh Brown		Trent Vardy*	Trent West
Leon Davis*	Tyson Goldsack

 

 

 

Of the list above, 32 men (those with an asterisk) never played in a premiership.

 

There are players on that list who were decent footballers, men like Danny Jacobs, Shane O’Bree, Leon Davis, Shane Mumford, Jarrad McVeigh and Josh Kennedy.  They were good enough to play in a premiership, but it just didn’t happen.

 

There are also names that can barely be remembered, like Jaymie Graham, Kane Tenace and Shane Morrison. 

 

A settled line up midway through the season is not a guarantee to success.  In 2005, Sydney made five changes to their round nine team and went on to win the premiership.  Hawthorn and Port Adelaide also made five changes.

 

The research above is limited, because it only covers round nine of the past twelve seasons.  It proves, though, that there will be change, almost every week.  Four footballers who played for this year’s premiers will miss out.  It could be any reason, form, youth, injury, age or balance. 

 

All of the above could happen to players who feature in any round.  Clubs cut and change throughout the year.  It’s a tough game.  Any player selected for any round will be looking over his shoulder at his teammates, at those he hopes will miss out when the premiership is won.

 

Other players will miss out through suspension during the finals.  Recent history shows Jason McCartney and Graham Strachan missed premierships because they belted someone.

 

The reasons for not getting selected are simple, form, injury, suspension or balance.  Being a footballer is tough.  They need to peak at the right time.  If they do, and their team does, they can play in a premiership.

 

There is a bevy of clubs expected to finish in the top four.  Those clubs, West Coast, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn and Adelaide have a core group of elite footballers who will play between 15 and 25 games during the season.  They’ll be fit for the finals.

 

Pity the four or five who will miss out.

 

Depth is the key to success.  Those can come in must be better than those going out.  At bare minimum, like must replace like.  Clubs that can’t replace like with like can’t win a grand final. 

 

 

Pride Cup results:

 

78	Anne (6)
77	Russ (6)
76	Sandra (6), Matt B (6), James F (6)
75	Matt (5), Wayne (6), Dave (6)
74	The Pole (6)
73	Stevo (5), George (6)
72	Andy (6)
69	Adam L (6), Dallas (5), Paul (6), James T (6)
68	Eric (6), Donna (6)
62	Jim (4)
34	Nemo (0)

 

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