The change has been dramatic. After ten rounds Essendon had won eight games. They were second on percentage to West Coast. North Melbourne, after ten rounds, was twelfth with four wins.
For North and Essendon, round ten was the turning point in 2012. On Saturday, 2 June, Hawthorn humiliated North by 115-points at York Park in Tasmania. Buddy Franklin kicked 13 goals for the Hawks, four more than the Kangaroos scored.
A season that had shown much promise was suddenly a wreck. Clubs that lose by 115-points can’t get any lower. It would’ve been a dreadful flight home.
Later that night, Essendon lost the unlosable to Melbourne by six points in shocking conditions at the MCG. It was the Demons first win of the year, a remarkable achievement against a club seemingly on the rise.
The defeat was mere aberration, and as embarrassing at it was, the Bombers were much better than that, or so everyone thought.
Since that fateful tenth round, North Melbourne has won nine of their past ten games, including six in a row. Essendon has won just three games, and they’ve lost their past five.
No one predicted the change in fortune that befell Essendon. They were too fast, too skilful and too slick. Their leadership – coaches James Hird and Mark Thompson, were making the necessary difference to the playing list.
No one predicted North Melbourne would rebound so strongly. Their captain Andrew Swallow mentioned changes in attitude at training, simply making it fun again. Only winning does that, though happiness can be faked, especially in front of the coach.
No one at Arden Street would’ve enjoyed the week following the loss to Hawthorn. The soul searching would’ve seemed endless, with everyone from the president to the groundsmen questioning their ability, desire and commitment.
The media enjoyed themselves following the Hawthorn loss. North seemed directionless, particularly given Eugene Arocca had quit. Brad Scott’s game plan was analysed and exposed, along with a playing list that boasts few household names.
North, in primitive terms, was hopeless, and not for the last time the club was reminded which direction the Gold Coast is and how much money once awaited them.
There is much excitement at Arden Street right now. North is rated second in attack for the season behind Hawthorn. Defensively, they’re rated ninth, and that isn’t a rating any premiership contender would want.
History shows the club with the best defence invariably wins the grand final. North’s defence just isn’t good enough.
North fans, it must be said, aren’t talking about premierships, not even in hushed tones. The Kangaroos may be the best performed team in the past ten weeks, but the sobering facts remain.
North blew a 34-point lead against Port Adelaide in round eight. Against West Coast, a 36-point lead was let go. Come September, the ability to defend a two goal lead could be crucial.
There were listless performances early in the season against Sydney, Gold Coast and West Coast before a dreadful loss to the Western Bulldogs. In round nine North cruised to a ten goal lead against Brisbane before winning by sixteen points.
There’s another reason why North Melbourne won’t win the premiership. No team in the history of the game has ever lost a home and away match by more than 100 points and rebounded to win the grand final.
Teams that lose by 115-points are not premiership material, no matter the recovery in the latter part of the season.
Four victories against Gold Coast and the Giants have boosted the win/loss ration, and North would be second on the ladder had those two-point losses against Essendon, West Coast and Port Adelaide been victories.
Point is North lost those games, which is why they’re sixth instead of second. Still, they’re peaking nicely, and peaking is all about timing.
James Hird knows all about peaking. He would’ve been chuffed when Essendon won eight of their first nine games. Now, the Bombers can’t run out games and they’re leaking goals through a shocking defence. Three of their last five losses have included 96, 94 and 67-point margins.
That’s leaking… In boxing terms, the Bombers are getting knocked out.
Former coach Matthew Knights must be miffed. He was sacked because Essendon played one-way football, all out attack and couldn’t defend.
Hird has been coach for two years and the problems are still the same, so there has been scant development in the game plan and personnel. Only the coaches have changed. Knights cost the Essendon a million bucks in a contractural payout. Hird is probably on a million a year. One wonders which man has earned his money.
There is no merit in the argument that Essendon, long ago, were prepared to write off 2012 in favour of making a premiership tilt in 2013. It just makes no sense. Sure, they have a lot of young players who need another year of physical development, and they have experienced myriad soft tissue injuries.
No club, though, wants to write off a year. After ten rounds Essendon was second with eight wins. If the year was written off, they would’ve been twelfth after ten rounds with four wins.
Surely Hird and Mark Thompson didn’t sit down at the start of the year and say, hey, we’re not going to win the premiership this year. Let’s train the players hard and hell can sort out the injuries. We’ll win the premiership next year.
No coach would make such a decision before the season. No coach would make a conscious decision to train the players until they got injured, and Hird wouldn’t have made that decision ten rounds in.
Simply, the Bombers stuffed up their program. The best way to prepare players physically for football is having them play. Running at training helps too. Being injured doesn’t.
The year has been a waste instead of consolidation. Making the finals and gaining experience is consolidation. It isn’t getting injured and bombing out. Only now with the Bombers out of contention can Hird actually start thinking about next year.
His players will be a year older, another year of maturity, mentally and physically, but the Bombers were hot until the Melbourne game. Soft tissue injuries ruined the season. Of course, it all might pay off next year, and all clubs plan for the future.
The future, unfortunately for Essendon, might’ve been this year, because strange things happen when clubs make the finals.
After ten rounds, Essendon needed to win five of their final twelve games to qualify for the finals and they couldn’t. After ten rounds, North needed to win nine of their final twelve games to qualify.
And they did…
Momentum is everything in footy, as is peaking at the right time.
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