Predictions are as good as a promise. Worthless unless true, often attainable, the payoff being the lure and discussion fuelling the hype. A common refrain, who could predict that, is regularly heard after a big upset.
People love to predict the outcomes of football games in the hope of getting it right. Others bet on the outcome. The best prediction I’ve ever witnessed was backed up with money. In Federation Square, about an hour before the grand final, Adam G bet $20 on the draw at a mobile TAB unit.
Four hours later, Collingwood and St Kilda played in the third drawn grand final in VFL/AFL history.
Ask Adam how he predicted that and the theory goes something like this: St Kilda was a tight, defensive unit and Collingwood might not handle the pressure. Under those circumstances, the draw wasn’t that difficult to predict.
Adam won about $600.
Back in 1987, Lou Richards wrote a column Louie the Lip, for the Herald/Sun. Before the first week of the finals, Richards predicted North Melbourne to beat Melbourne by 21 points and Sydney to upset Hawthorn by 11 points.
Richards was wrong. The Hawks won by 99 points, the Demons by 118. ‘I was out by 249 points,’ he wrote.
Finals can be difficult to predict.
At the weekend, each game promises to be great, so let’s predict the outcomes…
Geelong plays Hawthorn on Friday night in the second qualifying final. The matchup puts the pressure squarely on Hawthorn, to prove they can overcome the long-term loss of key players and defeat the Cats for the first time since the 2008 grand final.
Hawthorn rested seven players last week, including Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli. They should be fresh but Geelong is coming off their best win for the year, a 96 point demolition of Collingwood.
Height could pose problems for the Hawks in defence. The Cats play tall, James Podsiadly, Tom Hawkins and Brad Ottens. Last time out, Podsiadly kicked six goals against Josh Gibson.
The Hawks are precise by foot and tough at the contest. They’re talking up their aggression. It could be pointless, given how skilful and hard Geelong is.
Buddy Franklin will have to kick four or five to give the Hawks any chance, particularly if Rioli can’t get it and David Hale isn’t able to take marks close to goal.
Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo, solid contributors throughout the season, will be playing their first finals. For Geelong, Daniel Menzel, Trent West and Allen Christianson will make the finals debut.
Geelong is favoured, $1.67 to $2.20, which indicates a close game, as it should be. A few weeks ago, the Ramble suggested the Hawks were a chance to win the premiership. Getting over the Cats could see that prediction come true, but it’s unlikely to happen.
The Cats will kick goals early, taking a three goal lead into quarter time. Despite a fight back, Hawthorn will give up late goals in the second term and trail by 21 points at half time. Following a tough third term, just six goals, the margin at the last change will be 15 points.
Franklin will kick the first goal of the final term to reduce the margin to nine points but that’s as close as Hawthorn will get. Geelong will hold on to win by 13 points.
On Saturday, Collingwood take on West Coast at the MCG. The bookies believe this one is already sorted. Collingwood is widely favoured, $1.18 to $4.85.
The Magpies are under all sorts of pressure following last week’s debacle against Geelong. After finishing on top the Magpies couldn’t possibly blow their best chance at winning another premiership. Heath Shaw and Nick Maxwell will come back in while ruckman Cameron Wood has been dropped.
Darren Jolly will go it alone against Dean Cox and Nick Naitanui, with Leigh Brown to provide support.
Despite getting plenty of the ball, Collingwood’s inaccuracy will hurt them late in the first quarter. West Coast will kick the last three goals of the term and lead at quarter time by two goals. The margin will grow at the half to 17 points. Shaw and Maxwell look tired. Jolly is struggling and Brown is giving away free kicks in the ruck contests.
Travis Cloke kicks the opening two goals of the third term and Collingwood dominate for fifteen minutes, kicking four goals. When the Eagles threaten, the Magpies shut them1 down for the remainder of the quarter by keeping the ball wide and protecting the corridor.
The margin at three quarter time is eight points, but it should be more. The Magpies have had eight more shots at goal, and twelve more inside-50s.
In the final term the Eagles lack of composure is exposed. Unaccustomed to the pressure of finals, they drop marks, take the wrong option, making crucial errors. Collingwood kicks away, five goals to one, to win by 29 points. Though the victory is far from clinical, faith is restored.
On Saturday night at Docklands, St Kilda takes on Sydney in the second elimination final. This is one of those games where destination designates favouritism. The Saints are favourites because the game is in Melbourne, paying $1.42 to $2.85.
Both teams are renowned for defensive pressure, one on one football rarely pretty but mostly close. After eight rounds St Kilda had a win and a draw. Their recovery has been exceptional. Four weeks ago, Sydney lost to Richmond. Their recovery, victories over Geelong and the Saints, has been impressive.
Brimming with finals experience, both clubs won’t lose their nerve in the early stages. The game is uncompromising and intense. Defensive zones work. Three goals are scored in the first term, with the Swans leading by seven points.
The second term is crucial. Sydney kicks a goal at the six minute mark to lead by 13 points. At the 20 minute mark, Steven Milne kicks his first, a snap on a tight angle thirty metres out. Two minutes later on the 50 he passes to Nick Riewoldt who marks in the square. Scores are level.
Brendan Goddard takes a mark forty out when the clock ticks over 25 minutes. His goal puts the Saints in front for the first time in the game. Goddard hits his chest as he runs back to the middle.
With two minutes left, Milne roves a marking contest and gathers the ball fifteen out and runs into an open goal. The Saints have kicked four goals in ten minutes and lead by 12 points.
Milne takes a mark on the lead 45 metres out on a 45 degree angle. He looks to pass then goals back and lines them up. His kick just beats the pack and puts St Kilda three goals up. A goal to Leigh Montagna stretches the lead and when Ben McEvoy kicks a rare goal the match is over.
The last quarter is almost a chore, just three goals. The final margin is 25 points. Sydney’s season is over.
Carlton and Essendon are touted as traditional rivals. When the VFL was alive, the Blues and the Bombers were suburban rivals, both clubs located in Melbourne’s inner north east. The region is full of Essendon and Carlton fans.
On Sunday, the MCG will be full. The match, by virtue of traditions, will be magnificent. Hype is unnecessary. Both clubs hate each other’s opulence, 16 premierships each, the most in the competition, a legacy that could be matched by Collingwood inside a month.
There’s a lot to hate.
Carlton hasn’t won for a month, defeat in their last two games to Hawthorn and St Kilda, those losses split by a bye. Essendon are coming off a bye. They weren’t good in their last match against Port Adelaide and finished the season with 11 wins.
The Blues are expected to win, paying $1.42 to $2.85. It’s a fair indication, but the game will be entertaining.
Essendon will open the scoring, two quick goals to Paddy Ryder and Jake Melksham. Carlton will hit back, two of their own then the game will be overcome with mistakes and turnovers. Essendon will kick a goal from a bad pass in defence. Two minutes later, Dustin Fletcher will trip Eddie Betts and concede a goal from the free kick.
Scores will be level at quarter time, 3:2:20 each.
That’s as close as Essendon will get. The margin at half time is 21 points, five goals to two in favour of the Blues. Betts gets another, while Andrew Walker kicks two.
David Hille kicks the first goal in the third and Leroy Jetta roves beautifully for another, but goals to Chris Judd and Marc Murphy restore the margin.
The match becomes a shootout, six goals each for the quarter, with the Blues leading by 22 points at the last change.
Setanta O’hAilpin kicks the first two goals of the last quarter, killing the contest. At the 20 minute mark, O’hAilpin kicks his fourth to put Carlton 47 points up. Two late goals to the Bombers reduce the margin in a predictably disappointing game.
Essendon is gone for season 2011…
If you don’t agree with the predictions, tell me what you think.
What a vivid yet interesting imagination you have Mr Watson. “WHAT AN IMAGINATION”… I think the bombers vs blues match will be closer than you think with less than a couple of goals the final margin. Packed house massive support home finals great contest. Worth watching in detail. I will record it as well.
Why someone has not picked you up for sports related journalism is beyond me. You would be a massive asset to a radio station or newspaper. Get on the Watson wagon. He continues to produce quality, interesting and most importantly intriguing stories that people like to read.
