Something bad is about to happen on Saturday, aside from Melbourne’s inclement weather. It’s going to be cold and wet on grand final day, a disappointment, but that’s not the calamity that will inflict the MCG and render excitement mute.
Collingwood suffers madly from the infamous Colliwobbles, a curse that strikes at the club’s core, their fragile heart, whenever they’re in the finals. They went 32 years between premierships, from 1958 to 1990. In between those premierships they lost plenty of grand finals and drew one.
It took 21 long, painful years for the Magpies to win another premiership, which they did last year against St Kilda.
Geelong is no better than Collingwood when it comes to finals. The Cats won the flag against Hawthorn in 1963 then went 43 years, until 2007, to break the premiership drought. When the drought broke it ended in a flood, a 119 point win over Port Adelaide.
Successful clubs put together eras of dominance, playing in two or three grand finals inside four or five years. Collingwood will defend their premiership at the weekend while Geelong will play their fourth grand final in five years.
This is a good era for both clubs, but one must consider these vital truths. In 2007 Geelong defeated Port Adelaide, a club playing just their second grand final since being admitted into the AFL in 1997. In 2008, Geelong lost the unlosable premiership to Hawthorn, a club with a legendary grand final pedigree.
In the past two seasons, Collingwood and Geelong defeated St Kilda in the grand final. The achievement seems significant, grand finals victories always are, but it was St Kilda, and they’ve only won a solitary premiership, way back in 1966.
The point is simple. Anyone who plays St Kilda is virtually guaranteed a win, which makes the next point even simpler. Geelong beat Port and the Saints for their last two premierships, and lost to Hawthorn. Collingwood beat St Kilda.
Sounds easy, right? Which tends to diminish their achievement, in historical terms, right? And that makes the next act predictable…
On Saturday, in the 2011 grand final, Collingwood will succumb to another dose of the Colliwobbles or Geelong will get belted like they regularly did in the nineties.
Humiliation is imminent for one of these clubs. Historically it has to happen, and the weather has nothing to do with it.
The Colliwobbles is a famed curse that strikes the Magpies whenever the weather turns from the gloom of winter to the chill of spring. Since 1970, the Magpies have played in 11 grand finals for two wins, two draws and seven losses.
At times the Colliwobbles seem to be impacted by divine might. In 2002 Jason Cloke was suspended, unfairly, for belting Tyson Edwards in the preliminary final. The following year, in the preliminary final, Anthony Rocca was suspended, unfairly, for an errant elbow against Port Adelaide.
Both suspensions robbed Collingwood of versatility, virtually guaranteeing victory to the Brisbane Lions.
In 1977, Collingwood finished on top with 18 wins and four losses. Victory by three points in the first semi final gave them a week off and a grand final berth. At three quarter time, 27 points up against North Melbourne, the Colliwoobles returned with a vengeance.
Ten minutes into the final term, North Melbourne was in front. The match climaxed in a draw. The following week, an exhausted Magpies outfit couldn’t impose control and trailed at each change. The final margin was 27 points, just to rub it in the faces of all associated with the Collingwood football club.
Last year the Magpies blew a four goal lead at half time and managed to salvage a draw. They took two grand finals to defeat St Kilda, the 56 points win in the replay was Collingwood’s greatest winning margin in a grand final.
Geelong isn’t without calamity, playing in four grand finals from 1989 to 1995 and losing them all, two by wide margins. The Cats showed little heart in three grand finals, forcing their coach, Malcolm Blight, to quit. In 1996, when they were thrashed in the pre-season grand final against Carlton, it seemed finals weren’t their thing.
AFL fans wanted Geelong to go away, contest the home and away season, sure, but leave the finals to those better equipped to deal with pressure and expectation. In 1997, Geelong finished second and went into the second qualifying final against North Melbourne as warm favourites.
Instead, Wayne Carey kicked seven of North’s eleven goals, leading the Roos to a gutsy win. At the end of the game, that old insulting moniker, handbag Cats, was being bandied around again. Capitulation, whenever the Finals word was mentioned, was a certainty.
All the heartache, though, all that shattering pain and agony, was erased in 2007 by a record 119 point grand final win over Port Adelaide. The monkey, it seemed, was off the Cat’s back and the 43-year premiership drought had been broken.
The Cats went burden free for one season, a good one. In 2008 they lost just one game in the home and away season and went into the grand final against Hawthorn as unbackable favourites.
Then they lost, another embarrassing humiliation, becoming just the second club in history to lose one game throughout the home and away season then lose the grand final, an infamous statistic no club wants to wear.
The pressure of the grand final, played in perfect conditions, ruined any semblance of fluidity and surety Geelong had exhibited throughout the season. On that fateful day, seasoned veterans missed simple shots on goal, some from as little as ten metres out, on the run and without pressure. As the Cats slipped behind on the scoreboard, panic interrupted their decision making processes and when they finally scored a goal deep into the last term, the match was over.
Geelong had lost the unlosable grand final. It should never have happened, but the people don’t want nice, people want consistency. The Cats appeared to be back to normal, their penchant for underperforming in finals restored.
But the Geelong outfit going around under coach Mark Thompson showed a resilience not seen at Kardinia Park for decades. Determined to avenge their catastrophic loss, Geelong went into the grand final against St Kilda, a club with just two losses for the year. On a cold, sodden MCG, the balance of power tilted back in Geelong’s favour, a 12 point win after a classic match.
Last year Collingwood inflicted further pain on St Kilda.
Historically, though, Geelong and Collingwood can’t be trusted when it comes to finals.
There would be no surprise if either club capitulated on Saturday, overcome by pressure, harassment and unfortunate weather. Both clubs bring poor history to the game, despite a golden, recent run of form.
That Collingwood finished on top means nothing. That the Cats finished second and defeated the Magpies twice across the season is meaningless. This is Collingwood and Geelong, two clubs with an unfortunate finals history.
Their fans and the industry, though, are far too trusting.
Something bad is going to happen on Saturday. One of these clubs is going to have a shocker. Despite the similarities in personnel, despite both teams being at their peak in terms of youth, age, experience and bulk, one of these clubs is going to lose by a wide margin, more than 45 points.
The match won’t be close. It can’t be, not when their woeful history is taken into consideration.
There would be no surprise if the match was over by half time, one team adapting to the conditions better, utilising teammates in better positions and kicking goals instead of points.
It’s anyone’s guess as to which team will get hammered, but it’ll be evident early in the first term.
Tossing a coin suggests Collingwood will be the club that suffers, again…
