Million dollar risk

Travis Cloke is set to become the AFL’s newest million dollar man if he leaves Collingwood through free agency. Melbourne and Fremantle have expressed their interest.  The Western Bulldogs are cashed up.

 

If Cloke wants out, those clubs will be tough on the negotiations.    Other clubs might be interested too, if they can find a million dollars a year.

 

Those able clubs must be careful.  Cloke isn’t worth a million bucks a year.

 

At the weekend Mick Malthouse told AFL Game Day the power forward was back.  ‘And I love it,’ Malthouse said.  He had been discussing Cloke, but he was also referring to other big forwards having an impact this year.

 

The power forward is back, to a certain extent.  Of the top ten goal kickers in 2012, only Hawthorn’s Cyril Rioli is shorter than 190 centimetres, and he’s tiny.  The list below shows the top ten:

 

 

 

Aside from Rioli, the rest are regarded as power forwards, big, mobile men capable of taking pack marks and kicking goals.

 

Though the numbers are low, Malthouse is right.  It is good to see power forwards breaking out.  Had Lance Franklin kicked straight, he could have 40 goals.  He is the premier forward in the competition.

 

Despite kicking 19 goals, Cloke is not having a dominant season.  A quick comparison shows he’s only had 28 scoring shots, well behind those above him.  Simply, Cloke isn’t getting enough of the ball, but that’s how he’s always played.

 

AgainstGeelong, Cloke had 15 possessions, took six marks and kicked 2.1.  That’s hardly a dominant game, yet he was praised for it.  Granted he kicked goals at crucial times, but a true power forward regularly has 25 possessions and kicks four or five goals.

 

Since his debut in 2005, Cloke has played 157 games.  His numbers aren’t great, averaging 14 possessions (11 kicks, three handpasses) and seven marks a game.  He’s kicked 243 goals, not a bad return, but his average of 1.5 goals each game isn’t good enough.  Unfortunately, he has kicked 215 behinds, and his accuracy of 53% is too low for a key forward.   

 

Given Collingwood generally plays the boundary line, Cloke takes a lot of marks fifty metres out and five metres inside play.  He’s often kicking long at goal and on a tight angle, which effects accuracy, but Cloke is prone to missing from thirty metres out, directly in front.

 

He has rarely, if ever, torn a game apart or won a game off his own boot.  Only twice in his career has he kicked six goals, though he has kicked bags of four (seven times) and five (six times).

 

Mostly he kicks one or two goals, sometimes three. 

 

Power forwards like Jason Dunstall, Tony Lockett, Wayne Carey and Gary Ablett snr regularly kicked swags of goals and won games of football for their clubs.  Those men dominated games, seasons and eras.

 

On so many days they were unstoppable.

 

Through eight seasons, Cloke has kicked 40 goals or more just twice.  Last year was easily his best return with 69 goals, but he’s currently in average form, as he mostly seems to be. 

 

Getting 15 possessions and kicking two goals is considered great at Collingwood because he doesn’t have to do any better.  If he moves to Melbourne or the Western Bulldogs, it won’t be enough.

 

Cloke is a good quality forward capable of thrilling fans with pack marks and long goals from outside fifty, but he doesn’t do it consistently enough to warrant a contract paying a million dollars a year.

 

How much would Franklin be worth under free agency?

 

Collingwood is confident Cloke will stay.  Reportedly, they’re willing to pay him $750,000 a year.  Not bad pay for a 25-year old.

 

It’s debatable that $750,000 is too much money…

 

Footballers mature at different ages.  Convention suggests the big guys take longer.  Cloke is a big guy and he’s 25.  He might be a slow developer and could still be yet to peak.

 

He’d want to start peaking soon to convince clubs he’s worth a million dollar risk.

 

 

 

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