The AFL acknowledges its draw has long been compromised. Ever since Brisbane and West Coast were introduced into the competition in 1987, the draw has favoured some clubs and disadvantaged others.
It is worse now. Eighteen clubs don’t go into 22 or 24 rounds. The AFL tries to mitigate the uproar of bias by ensuring poor performed clubs play less games against clubs that featured in the finals the previous year.
Sounds complicated, and it is. The draw doesn’t allow for clubs that fall or advance up and down the ladder. The draw must allow for interstate travel, five day breaks, nine day breaks, midweek games and stand alone games to open the season.
Amidst the mayhem, the AFL has fluked things. The AFL couldn’t have manufactured the compromised draw any better. Round 17 promises to be a cracker, and that’s not through forward planning, it’s by sheer coincidence.
It’s difficult to remember a round of such significance, where the ladder positions could change dramatically by round’s end.
Geelong (7th) plays Essendon (6th) at Docklands. Adelaide (2nd) host West Coast (5th) at Football Park.
At the MCG, Collingwood (3rd) and Hawthorn (4th) clash in a match that smacks of old time rivalry, in our life time anyway.
Sydney (1st) plays St Kilda (8th) at the SCG. In the battle for ninth, Richmond (11th) must defeat North Melbourne (9th) to keep their finals hopes alive.
Carlton (12th) must defeat the Western Bulldogs (14th) to keep faint finals hopes alive.
Fremantle (10th) will boost their percentage against a hapless GWS (last). The four points is guaranteed, the margin the only variable. It won’t be a pretty game to watch, and there’ll be no intensity.
The other games are largely meaningless, in terms of finals, but they’re evenly matched. Melbourne (16th) plays Port Adelaide (15th) while Brisbane (13th) open up the Gabba for the Gold Coast (17th).
It should be a remarkable round.
If Sydney loses they could fall to third, provided Adelaide, Collingwood or Hawthorn or win.
If Adelaide lose and either Collingwood, Hawthorn, Essendon or West Coast win, the Crows could drop to fifth.
If Collingwood lose and Hawthorn, West Coast and Essendon win, the Magpies will find themselves in sixth.
Should Hawthorn lose, they could drop to sixth if Essendon and West Coast win.
Essendon can jump to fourth if they win and West Coast and Hawthorn lose. If Geelong loses and St Kilda and North wins, the Cats could drop out of the eight.
It’ll be hard for St Kilda to conjure a win at the SCG. Sydney has the best defence through sixteen rounds and rate sixth in attack. Their percentage of 148.05 is 17 percent better than second placed Adelaide and 26 percent better than third placed Collingwood.
Only Hawthorn’s percentage of 157 is better than Sydney’s. The Hawks are slim favourites against Collingwood and the game should be close.
Geelong will probably lose honourably to Essendon, but they won’t go belly up without exposing some claws among the flaws. Essendon need to win this to prove their worth. Geelong must win to stay in the eight.
North were clinical against Carlton last week but could be without Drew Petrie. They’re already without Jack Zeibell who received a four match suspension for a high hit.
In the past few seasons North has lost games they’re expected to win and this one, against an embarrassed Tiger outfit, could be another. No one loses to the Gold Coast except for Richmond.
Carlton, without captain Chris Judd and without any system or confidence won’t do it easy against the Western Bulldogs. They should win, but it won’t be a blow out.
Injury and suspension seems to be finally catching up with West Coast. They’re rank outsiders against Adelaide and a loss will render all the good work they’ve done redundant.
The round has myriad possibilities. The jostling for ladder positions will be intense, the four points priceless.
