A loss here, a heartache there
– Former North Melbourne coach Denis Pagan
In the long hours following last weekend’s qualifying finals, four coaches and their bevy of assistants began planning and plotting victory with a weary sense of familiarity. For first time, since the inception of the final eight in 1994, the preliminary finalists are the same across consecutive seasons. As in the 2009, Geelong will play Collingwood and St Kilda plays the Western Bulldogs.
The theory of windows of opportunity, if it needed further proof, has it. The protagonists are all battle-hardened, with a collective 43 finals since 2005. Collingwood and the Bulldogs have played ten finals since 2006. Geelong has played thirteen finals and St Kilda ten since 2005.
All four clubs know how to win finals. Of the four, only Geelong and St Kilda have won through to the grand final in recent years. Under Mark Thompson, the Cats have won three preliminary finals. For the first time in history, they’ll play in four consecutive preliminary finals, a great effort, but Thompson, a dual premiership coach, is facing his biggest challenge yet in a penultimate final. The weekend’s game is the third time in four years the Cats and Magpies have squared off in a preliminary final.
Though Collingwood is well-rested and largely unscathed, Magpies coach Mick Malthouse still has plenty to worry about. Last year’s 73-point loss to the Cats is largely irrelevant, but mental frailties tend to linger. The game at the weekend, if it starts slipping out of control, will be hard to retrieve.
As the Ramble has shown, Collingwood’s accuracy at goal diminishes in the second half. If they can’t kick straight in the first half, they’re gone.
Finishing on top, though, will give Malthouse and his men confidence in their game plan and abilities. Though they lost to Geelong and St Kilda in the early rounds, they rebounded and dominated both clubs in the rematches. The Cats may have regressed five percent since last season, which is natural with an ageing list, but Collingwood has improved five percent, natural too, for a young list getting older.
Last year Collingwood was the learner, now they could be master. In 2007, Geelong won a tight, enthralling game by five points. If the result is reversed, it could be the inverse of the 2007 classic.
Collingwood is playing their third preliminary final in four years, their best chance at winning one. If the Magpies lose, it’ll be their third prelim loss in four years, all to Geelong.
The Magpies, who last won a preliminary in 2003, have put together multiple prelims throughout their history, playing in four consecutive preliminary finals from 1978-81 for three wins and one loss. None of those wins led to a premiership.
The other rematch matches the battlers, St Kilda and the Bulldogs, clubs hated by history, just one premiership each, loved only by their supporters and neutral fans who succumb to the subjective myth of sentiment.
Going into the match, the Dogs are deserved outsiders. They finished top four again but in worse shape than 2009, further proof that March trinkets are worthless, save for a few thousand members and misplaced hope. Injured, out of form and with a poor record across three seasons against the best, the Bulldogs will lose, which is a shame.
For the first time since 1925, the Dogs will play in three consecutive preliminary finals. This is rare form, a remarkable effort but one that won’t lead to a premiership.
Bulldogs coach Rodney Eade will need all to go right to win. He’s no dill, knowing the industry expects his club to lose. If they make the grand final, the industry will succumb to the subjective myth of sentiment, but it won’t be enough against Collingwood or Geelong.
Eade’s tenure at the Bulldogs is about to get dysfunctional. He’s a good coach with an old list. The window, three consecutive preliminary finals, will be the easiest to close, without a premiership.
St Kilda is in rare form too. For the first time since 1970-72 they’ll appear in three consecutive preliminary finals. Back in the seventies, those three preliminaries yielded naught from one grand final appearance. September is cruel and kind.
The Bulldogs and Saints, battlers with unsuccessful backgrounds, are creating unique history in the second preliminary final, fittingly, in a match against each other.
It’s easy to love the history of the AFL.
The Saints should win easily, by about five goals, with the match over midway through the third quarter. Though much has been said about Geelong and Collingwood, the premier needn’t come from that preliminary final.
Perception doesn’t always provide clarity.
Saints coach Ross Lyon must be wearing that wry expression, trying not to laugh at the suggestion his team has been written off. He’d be shrugging shoulders, you can’t say we can’t win, can you, I mean, how can you say that, and planning to destroy the Bulldogs, with a smile on his face.
Despite the mirth, Lyon isn’t averse to anger. Late in the win over Geelong, he elbowed an advertising board behind him, knocking the panel to the ground. He wants a premiership. The advertising panel has been given national exposure, great for the sponsor, yet the amusement Lyon portrays betrays the desperation. His club can win the grand final, if they can get there.
Getting there isn’t half the fun, not when the result is reduced to a win or loss. Getting there might provide fun, heartache, testament to ability or lack thereof, but getting to a grand final, really, is meaningless without victory. Clubs don’t win runners-up.
The preliminary finalists present another unique situation. Not since 1972-73 have the clubs finishing in the top four across two seasons been the same. On that occasion it was Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood and St Kilda.
Since 1970, there have been seven rematches in consecutive preliminary finals, so it isn’t exactly rare, but it isn’t common. The table below, certainly, is skewed by the introduction of dual preliminary finals in 1994. Prior to 1994, there was one preliminary final each season.
| Clubs | Year |
| North Melbourne | |
| Collingwood | 1978-79 |
| Collingwood | |
| Geelong | 1980-81 |
| Adelaide | |
| Western Bulldogs | 1997-98 |
| Essendon | |
| Carlton | 1999-2000 |
| West Coast | |
| Adelaide | 2005-06 |
| Geelong | |
| Collingwood | 2009-10 |
| St Kilda | |
| Western Bulldogs | 2009-10 |
Season 2010, as every season does, is filling pages with statistics. That sense of weary familiarity, the same clubs from last year, the same top four, the same preliminary finals, is tempered by the odd fact that twelve clubs weren’t good enough, through two home and away seasons, to challenge for the top four. There has been no improvement, at all, from those twelve clubs. The top four is rarefied air.
Finals are tough to win. Aside from the first weekend of September, clubs that lose generally don’t play again. History has shown great teams lose finals and underdogs become great by winning. The coaches involved at the weekend know how tough preliminary finals are to win.
Don’t crush the losers after the weekend. Through North Melbourne’s successful era under Denis Pagan, they played in seven consecutive preliminary finals and won three. A loss here, a heartache there, according to Pagan, might’ve been a prerequisite to premierships, but it doesn’t preclude them either.
Giant strides are taken when clubs win a preliminary final, but those strides are a scamper on the hustle needed to win a premiership. Winning a grand final provides all the fun and bragging rights a footballer needs for the rest of his life, supporters too.
Winning preliminary finals is nothing but nice.
